I have studied the vote share of both the Congress and the
BJP after the Parliamentary elections in 2014 which I have shown below. The comparison is between the vote share obtained by the parties in the last assembly election and the vote share obtained in the latest assembly elections.
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VARIOUS ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS SINCE THE
LOK SABHA ELECTION
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Column1
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Column2
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Column4
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Column5
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Column6
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Column7
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Column8
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Column9
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BJP
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SWING
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CONGRESS
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SWING
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LAST ELE
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LATEST
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LAST ELE
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LATEST
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2014
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HARYANA
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9.04
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33.20
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24.16
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35.08
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20.60
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-14.48
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2014
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J&K
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12.45
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23.00
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10.55
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17.71
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18.00
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0.29
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2014
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JHARKHAND
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20.18
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31.30
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11.12
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16.16
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10.00
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-6.16
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2014
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MAHARASTRA
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14.02
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27.80
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13.78
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21.01
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18.00
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-3.01
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2015
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DELHI
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33.07
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32.20
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-0.87
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24.55
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9.7
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-14.85
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2015
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BIHAR
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16.46
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24.40
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7.94
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8.38
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6.7
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-1.68
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2016
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WEST BENGAL
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4.06
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10.20
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6.14
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9.09
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12.30
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3.21
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2016
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TAMILNADU
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2.20
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2.80
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0.60
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9.30
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6.40
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-2.90
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2016
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KERALA
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6.00
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10.50
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4.50
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26.4
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23.70
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-2.70
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2016
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ASSAM
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11.47
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29.50
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18.03
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39.39
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31.00
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-8.39
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As can be seen from the table, the BJP has gained in all the
elections compared to the vote share it had in the prior assembly election with
the exclusion of Delhi where it lost a marginal 1% vote.
Comparatively the Congress had a torrid time and lost its vote
share in all the states except J&K where it just about retained it and West
Bengal where it has gained 3.21% vote share in alliance with the Marxists.
In fact in states like Haryana and Delhi the Congress lost
some 14% plus of the vote share which is massive loss.
In Bihar the loss of Vote share of the Congress may look
small at 1.68% but in percentage terms it lost 20% of its votes and slumped to
just 6.7%.
In Jharkhand Congress lost 38% of its votes which is again a
massive blow. In Tamil Nadu the party lost 31% of its votes.
Of all these states the Congress is still a force only in
Kerala and Assam where it managed to retain a substantial vote share despite
suffering losses.
The picture is not at all good for the Congress but they
refuse to see anything but the family.
