There is some
bad news for the world. However, the good news is that this bad news is not yet
confirmed and most probably that can either be confirmed or overruled only in
the year 2028. Till that time we have remain in suspense.
The yet
unconfirmed bad news is from the asteroid 2024-YR4. This asteroid is estimated
to be between 40 meters and 100 meters wide and was discovered on 27.12.2024 by
ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System) of NASA. As per the
scientific hypothesis available with us, such asteroids strike the earth every
few thousand years. The resultant impact would cause severe damage to a local
region as the asteroid would then travel at a speed of 17 Km/Sec.
The Torino
scale is a scale to measure the likelihood of an asteroid/comet colliding with
the earth. This scale uses the gradation from 0 to 10, where the impact chances
with the Erath are negligible with ‘0’ and most certain with ‘8’ with local
destruction. A gradation of 9 has a certain impact with regional destruction. A
gradation of ‘10’ would mean a certain hit and global destruction with a threat
to entire humanity itself. I have mentioned about this scale when I wrote a
note on Apophis earlier.
NASA’S centre
for Near Earth Objects (NEO) studies indicate that the asteroid 2024-YR4 has a
1.2% probability ( A 1 in 83 chance) of striking the earth on Dec 22, 2032 and
it is placed at number 3 on the Torino scale which is the 2nd
highest ever rating got by any object so far. Apophis first had a rating of 4
which was later downgraded to ‘0’. Currently, no other known large asteroid has
an impact probability above 1% excluding 2024-YR4. A 1 in 83 chance for a
strike is still a chance and cannot be ignored. However, as we have plenty of
advance warning, even if it is on a course to impact Earth, it can be deflected
easily as it is a small asteroid. The DART experiment already proved that we
can alter the orbit of an asteroid.
As per
current observations the trajectory where impact is possible is given in the
picture that is being forwarded. The worry for us is that the trajectory passes
through Northern India. If this asteroid hits the Earth, and falls in a city,
then it would wipe out that entire city and its impact affect would spread to
50 km.
The asteroid
is currently moving away from the earth in a straight-line and by the time the
Astronomers came to know about, it was already moving away. So the asteroid
would require lot more observation in 2028 when it would travel back near to
earth. Precise observations can be made at that time and the exact possible
impact can be pin pointed. If we are lucky, in all probability it may miss the Earth.
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