Saturday, 28 May 2016

POST 2014 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS---COMPARATIVE ASCENDANCY OF BJP AS AGAINST A DECLINE OF THE CONGRESS.

I have studied the vote share of both the Congress and the BJP after the Parliamentary elections in 2014 which I have shown below. The comparison is between the vote share obtained by the parties in the last assembly election and the vote share obtained in the latest assembly elections.

VARIOUS ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS SINCE THE LOK SABHA ELECTION


Column1
Column2
Column4
Column5
Column6
Column7
Column8
Column9


BJP

SWING
CONGRESS

SWING


LAST ELE
LATEST

LAST ELE
LATEST

2014
HARYANA
9.04
33.20
24.16
35.08
20.60
-14.48








2014
J&K
12.45
23.00
10.55
17.71
18.00
0.29








2014
JHARKHAND
20.18
31.30
11.12
16.16
10.00
-6.16








2014
MAHARASTRA
14.02
27.80
13.78
21.01
18.00
-3.01








2015
DELHI
33.07
32.20
-0.87
24.55
9.7
-14.85








2015
BIHAR
16.46
24.40
7.94
8.38
6.7
-1.68








2016
WEST BENGAL
4.06
10.20
6.14
9.09
12.30
3.21








2016
TAMILNADU
2.20
2.80
0.60
9.30
6.40
-2.90








2016
KERALA
6.00
10.50
4.50
26.4
23.70
-2.70








2016
ASSAM
11.47
29.50
18.03
39.39
31.00
-8.39

As can be seen from the table, the BJP has gained in all the elections compared to the vote share it had in the prior assembly election with the exclusion of Delhi where it lost a marginal 1% vote.

Comparatively the Congress had a torrid time and lost its vote share in all the states except J&K where it just about retained it and West Bengal where it has gained 3.21% vote share in alliance with the Marxists.

In fact in states like Haryana and Delhi the Congress lost some 14% plus of the vote share which is massive loss.

In Bihar the loss of Vote share of the Congress may look small at 1.68% but in percentage terms it lost 20% of its votes and slumped to just 6.7%.

In Jharkhand Congress lost 38% of its votes which is again a massive blow. In Tamil Nadu the party lost 31% of its votes.

Of all these states the Congress is still a force only in Kerala and Assam where it managed to retain a substantial vote share despite suffering losses.


The picture is not at all good for the Congress but they refuse to see anything but the family.

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR EFFECT.

Suitable atmosphere or climate is a must for survival of an organism. 
It should not be either too cold or too hot and also possess sufficient water. Earth has the right type of climate to sustain life and that is the reason why
life flourished on it. But it now appears that the human race is 
squandering away this inheritance in a most blatant and irresponsible 
manner. This is nothing but cutting away the branch on which one is 
sitting. The temperature of the earth is becoming hotter due to man made events. Global warming mainly occurs on account of Greenhouse gases. 
Global warming affects the climate drastically and brings in a number of calamities. 
The concept of Global Warming through the Greenhouse effect was proposed as long back as 1824 by Joseph Fourier and was first investigated by Svante Arrhenius in 1896, nevertheless today some 120 years after that,all we have are discussions and no concrete action to put a stop to it or at least bring it down.The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty, based on the premise that global warming exists and man-made CO2 emissions have caused it. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan in Dec1997.
WORLD CO2 EMISSION FOR THE YEAR 2014 DATA BY EUROPEAN COMMISSION
AREA --------------------KILOTONS------------------ %----------------KT/CAPITA
WORLD 35,669,000
CHINA 10,540,000 30 7.6
USA 5,334,000 15 16.5
EU 3,415,000 10 6.7
INDIA 2,341,000 7 1.8
RUSSIA 1,766,000 5 12.4
JAPAN 1,278,000 4 10.1
GERMANY 767,000 2 9.3
It can be clearly seen as to who is the main culprit. If we go by absolute figures it is China by far with 30% of the world’s total emissions. The US is second with 15% and India is third with 7%. But it is the per capita consumptions that show the real picture. The US produces 16.5 KT per capita which is more than double that of China. Poor India, although it looks to be the 3rd highest as per the absolute figures produces the lowest per capita at just 1.8 KT . The United States has not ratified the Kyoto protocol and its senate has voted unanimously against it in 1997. Actually the CO2 emissions by the world are mind boggling and I could not believe my eyes when I calculated. These figures indicate that the world produces about 100 million tons of CO2 each day and spews it into the atmosphere. The earth may be big but even it can be affected with such quantities.  As a part of the initiatives to bring down global warming a number of conferences were held at various places. They never produced anything.COP21 at Paris came along now. If nothing is done here too and countries simply have discussions and come back without any implementation, the entire humanity would be at risk. 
On the earth the normally occurring greenhouse gases have a warming effect to keep the average temperature of the earth at 33 degrees C.
Without the atmosphere and the greenhouse gases, the earth’s average temperature would be below the freezing point of water. 
The following are the Gases that cause the Greenhouse effect:
1. Water Vapor which causes 36 to 70%.
2. Carbon Dioxide which causes 9 to 26%.
3. Methane which causes 4 to 9%.
4. Ozone which causes 3 to 7%.
5. Clouds also affect the radiation. 
Of these only those at points 2 & 3 can be affected by humans. It has been estimated that since the year 1750, Carbon Dioxide and Methane concentrations in the atmosphere have gone up by 36% and 148% respectively due to human activity. The records for the past 20 years indicate that fossil fuel burning accounts for 75% of the increase in Carbon Dioxide emissions and the rest 25% increase is accounted for by deforestation.
There is a popular misconception about the linkage of the depletion of the Ozone layer and the Carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere but that is not the case and there is only a minor correlation. 
The solar irradiance since 1978 till now has been measured and is found to be constant without any increase. Therefore this has nothing to do with global warming. Therefore global warming is essentially man made. 
During the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise by 0.3 to 1.7 degree Celsius with stringent controls and the worst possible scenario in their absence could be an increase of 2.6 to 4.8 degrees Celsius. 
Sustained global warming of more than 2 degrees centigrade can lead to a rise in the sea level by 1 to 4 meters. Approximately there would be an increase of 2.3 meters of sea level for every degree rise in temperature. 
Most ecosystems would be affected by changes in temperature of the earth. This leads to Extreme weather, sea level rise and flooding affecting our lives badly.

AP ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2024.-MY COMMENTS ON THE ARTICLE WRITTEN BY PARAKALA PRABHAKAR -THE WIRE MAGAZINE.

Parakala Prabhakar comes from a staunch Congress family. Both his father and mother had been Members of the Legislative Assembly represent...