THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR.

Syria became an independent republic in 1946. The Democratic rule was however ended in 1949 with 3 coups taking place in the same year. In 1954 there was an uprising of the people and the power was transferred to civilians by the army.

Syria had a brief union with Egypt for 3 years between 1958-61. This union replaced the Parliamentary system with a highly centralized Presidential system.  The Baath Government came to power in 1963 by way of a coup. In 1970 General Hafez El Assad, the defense Minister seized power. He declared himself President and held power till 2000 when he died. 

Bashar Al Assad took over power from his father Hafez and became President in 2000. 10 leading activists from various forums called for democratic Government and for Civil Disobedience which led to their arrest in August 2001.

The problem is more sectarian as only 12% of Syria’s population is Shia and the rest are Sunni. But the ruling family is Shia.

Socio-economic inequality increased significantly after free market policies were initiated by Hafez al-Assad in his later years, and accelerated after Bashar al-Assad came to power. These reforms only benefited a select few. The country also faced particularly high youth unemployment rates.

This coincided with the most intense drought ever recorded on Syria which lasted from 2007 to 2010. Syria had also received in the same period around 1.5 million refugees from Iraq.

In December 2010 anti government protests began in Tunisia and spread to other parts of the Arab world including Syria. Revolutions occurred in Tunisia and Egypt in 2011 which inspired the fueling of unrest in Syria.

By 2011, Syria was facing steep rise in the prices of commodities and a clear deterioration in the national standard of living. Tension increased in the Kurdish areas of Syria due to discrimination.

There was a civil uprising in Syria in 2011 that initially demanded democratic reforms from the Government but the movement was met with force by the army  which later led to the call for overthrow of the Assad Government.

In April 2011, the Syrian army started military attacks on the towns backed by tanks, artillery and infantry killing 1000 people. Thousands were also imprisoned.

In June 2011 armed rebellion broke out against the Army and it continued and the severity of the army crackdown on civilians increased. In July, 7 defecting Syrian army officers formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to bring down Assad’s Government.

In October 2011 Turkey started supporting the rebel FSA. In November the conflict escalated and January 2012 the army started using large artillery against civilian homes. By April 2012, the death toll in the conflict rose to 10,000.

While Kofi Annan was negotiating a ceasefire on behalf of UN, the Syrian army mounted a large scale attack on towns and villages and executed many people. The ceasefire failed miserably.

In September 2012, the Kurds who were hitherto neutral entered the conflict as their civilians were killed by the Syrian army. 

In September 2013 ISIS also entered the conflict when it took a town held by the rebel FSA. The Syrian civil war turned into a mess now with a multiple number of groups fighting each other.

Syria held a presidential election in June 2014 where Assad secured some 89% of the votes cast. Allies of Assad from more than 30 countries were invited by the Syrian government to follow the presidential election and these include Bolivia, Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador, India, Iran, Iraq, Nicaragua, Russia, South Africa and Venezuela.

As per the observers no irregularities were found in the election. This result is extremely surprising and the only conclusion one can draw is that a majority of the people want peace and are on the Government’s side. The rebels are in a minority but seem to be causing all the problems.

In June 2014, ISIL seized substantial Iraqi territory in addition to heavy equipment which they brought into Syria to fight the Syrian army. The Syrian army now mounted an air offensive in coordination with Iraqi army attacked ISIL bases.

In August 2014 the FSA commander admitted to working with Israel and obtaining anti tank missiles from them. The injured FSA soldiers were also nursed in Israel.

In August the American journalist James Foley was executed by ISIL. At least 70 journalist covering the Syrian war have been killed and 80 were kidnapped.

In September 2014 American jest started bombing ISIL targets in Syria. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Jordan supported and aided the US strikes. Even the US Tomahawk missiles were used against ISIS. The FSA was informed beforehand about the airstrikes by the US.

In May-Aug 2015, the ISIL had resurgence and started capturing more Syrian territory.  

On 30^th Sep 2015, Russia in conjunction with the Syrian army striking at Army of Conquest targets. This is another rebel group in Syria which is against the Government. 

The problem in Syria is that there are too many actors.

Pro Government:

1.     Syrian Armed focres, 2. NDF militants. 3. Shabiha militants, 4. Christian Militias 5. The Hezbollah, 6. Iran, 7. Russia.

Anti Government:

1.     Syrian National Coalition, 2. Free Syrian Army, 3. Syrian national Council, 4. Islamic Front, 5. Salafist factions, 6. Al Nusra Front, 7. Syrian Kurds, 8. ISIL.

In addition, the US is against the ISIL and is also against the Syrian Government.

With so many factions it is impossible to ever arrive at a solution to the Syrian problem and countries entering the conflict would only enhance their pains. With such intense civil war, the position of the civilians is simply unthinkable and little wonder they are fleeing their country. Syria seems to have regressed to the days of the tribal wars and all civilization is forgotten.